Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Vycid
on 03/09/2013, 04:50:46 UTC
Anyone got a poisson distribution calculator that can tell me what the odds of 0 blocks in 6 hours at 50 TH is? Probably less than 5%?

http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

what happened? Cry  
maybe, Friedcat is testing and deploying?

I have no idea.

http://blockchain.info/blocks/ASICMiner

As of this moment, it has been 7.5 hours since the last discovered block.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation (could someone do this properly, please?) tells me that AM has no less than 7% of the network hash at 50TH. If we assume 6 blocks per hour (I believe there are slightly more), the odds of this no-block streak are less than

(1-0.07) ^ (6*7.5) = 0.0381 ~ 3.81%, so I think it's worthwhile to start paying some attention here.

(If 50TH constitutes 8% of the network hash, that'd be (1-0.08)^(6*7.5) = 0.0235 ~ 2.35%)

EDIT: AM has just discovered a block, after approximately 8 hours since the last.