You already know that it is impossible to predict the price accurately and that many forecasts that people can not take as something guaranteed, so we have to make assumptions about the possible price increases we had last year, my guess is that in the year past people will be very motivated because of japan, segwit, hard fork and futures... now we have a hard fork coming and the price has also increased and the alticoins are probably being sold to buy bitcoin because of the hard fork and this leads me believe that every time we have good news people sell their altcoins to buy bitcoin and the price of bitcoin goes up very temporarily. If we have good news, then the price will increase, if we do not have good news then the price will be stable.