From where are you getting the impression that guys are "sure"?  We seem to be batting around scenarios, and some of those scenarios don't even come to play unless $10k breaks, which has not happened yet... and when we were at $11,500+, there was not even any kind of certainty that we were going to be coming back down, because at that time, we could have broken further UP, too..

I'm sure that there are some folks that are playing BIG and guessing correctly, and maybe TERA2 is going to come back in here and tell us how she played it all correctly and how now it is going down to lower points, that she had already set herself up for such play.. maybe she speaks truth and maybe she is just bullshitting, even if the waves end up playing fairly close to her early outline of what was going to happen (but still does not mean that she can foresee the future - even if the outlined scenario ended up coming out largely correct).

MOA is a very reasonable poster