People are giving this a VERY high probability, as you point out.  

I just don't see the evidence for a scam.  They've behaved exactly the opposite of how scammers behave.  If you believe it's a scam, you're not basing it on what we've seen thus far from them, you're basing it on something else.

Which leaves technical issues as the main risk. But they've indicated they will be on schedule, which means they have encountered no major techinical issues yet.  

They might be lying, of course.  It's possible.  I just don't see any evidence that it's very likely.

People are just overly gunshy.

Fine with me, I guess.  I'll be accepting their money when the share price jumps up.