Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.
"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"
"Volume!"
Hahahahaha.
"Volume!"
Hahahahaha.
Quoting this for the future.
I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.
Remind me, when were you not a buyer?
Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.
At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.
This is an ABSURD statement.
2 BTC/share suggests a company value/market cap of 800k BTC. Typically that means we should see 800k BTC in profit over 10 years (about average for a fairly valued company, factoring in growth).
The block reward will halve to 12.5 in 2016, and again in 2020 to 6.25. Currently there are about 1.3M BTC up for grabs per year. So the potential REVENUE given 5% mining share is around (3 + 4 * .5 + 3 *.25) * 1.3M * 5% = 374k, less than half what we need for fair value.
But we need PROFIT. ASICs cost money to manufacture and take electricity to run. Long term I expect the margins to drop to 20% or below.
If you're gonna give me some crap about "transaction fees" you are not a value investor, you are a speculator. There is no evidence to suggest transaction fees are going to increase to a significant level.
Vycid,
Will you commit to selling me shares of AM in 6 weeks at 2.0/share? Since, this isn't an option but more of a futures play, you don't need to pay me a premium, and I am willing to escrow btc if you can prove ownership of shares, or are also willing to escrow a good faith btc deposit, with an agreed escrow agent. Thinking we each would put up 25-33% of the position, since btc assets are so much more volatile than other assets traded on futures markets.
-helixone
runeks has been offering fairly generous premiums for put options, so I don't see why you would offer this to me for free.
You would be obligated to buy the shares at 2.0, in 6 weeks?
No premium, however, both of us puts up equal escrow. (BTC puts suck from the seller point of view as one has to escrow the entire amount, and can't use ones portfolio as escrow.) Let me know privately or publicly:
a) what percentage of the position we should each escrow. I am proposing 25-33%, and if the position moves against either of us more than the escrow deposit, we either need to put up more, or forfeit the escrow. (traditional futures margin call).
b) how many shares you are looking to commit to selling.
-helixone