antminepool seems perfect so far. I'm getting within 5% of the calculator, even after 11/127 orphan blocks for the last 24h.
nlpool has 12/37 (32%) orphans for the last 24h. I don't know what's wrong with that pool, but it is not normal.
I don't know your counting skills but we got 3 orphans in the last 50 blocks. See
http://www.nlpool.nl/site/mining