Re: Why I think User "alia" is a (potential) scammer? User "aTriz" maybe involved!
⭐ Merited by nullius (1)
Alia just started a new thread in the Gambling subforum titled Proving that my gambling script works.
One of the two sites (Cryptobust) also has an open scam accusation.
That was the wrong cryptobust, I assume the correct one is cryptobust.io
Edit: I have made a post about alia's chances of winning based on the terms she outlined in the above post.
At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:
(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).
This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.
So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.
I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.
I was once selling a gambling script (for which I received a lot of backlash) and was called a scammer. I am saying that it is profitable in the short run - people do not believe me.
Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.
1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust. You can follow along daily, since the times have been set in stone, and will not change. You can even watch me play, if you wish to do so. I will screen record each run through and post it here.
Note: I am no longer selling the script, I just want to prove people wrong.
Anyway, the aim for each run will be a 20% ROI. I recommend 5-10% ROI with the script, but 20% will be my aim each time. As I stated previously, the script usually works 9/10 times or more. So, I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
We will see. You shall all see.
PS: If you have mathematically sound reasoning below, your post shall stay. If you have words of encouragement, the post will stay. If I lose more than 2 times and you want to roast me, the post will stay.
If you insult me for no reason, I will delete your post. If you spam irrelevant stuff here, I will delete your post. Trolls, please return if I lose (aka not happening)
Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.
1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust. You can follow along daily, since the times have been set in stone, and will not change. You can even watch me play, if you wish to do so. I will screen record each run through and post it here.
Note: I am no longer selling the script, I just want to prove people wrong.
Anyway, the aim for each run will be a 20% ROI. I recommend 5-10% ROI with the script, but 20% will be my aim each time. As I stated previously, the script usually works 9/10 times or more. So, I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
We will see. You shall all see.
PS: If you have mathematically sound reasoning below, your post shall stay. If you have words of encouragement, the post will stay. If I lose more than 2 times and you want to roast me, the post will stay.
If you insult me for no reason, I will delete your post. If you spam irrelevant stuff here, I will delete your post. Trolls, please return if I lose (aka not happening)
That was the wrong cryptobust, I assume the correct one is cryptobust.io
Edit: I have made a post about alia's chances of winning based on the terms she outlined in the above post.
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:
(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).
This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.
So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.
I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.