⭐ Merited by NLNico (3)
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:
(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).
This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.
So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.
I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.
It is also worth pointing out that 20 runs is statistical noise.
I set up a contigency table, played with the numbers and ran some chi-squared tests on them. I calculated for a p-value of 0.05 (This means that the results we achieve would be achieved by random chance 5% of the time i.e. we are 95% confident the script is working as advertised. This is a common minimum standard required across most fields of scientific.)
Even if the script could completely eliminate the house edge (which it can't), we would need around 6000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05. If the script could half the house edge from 1% to 0.5%, we would need around 23000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05.