Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.