Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: Proving that my gambling script works.
by
o_e_l_e_o
on 02/03/2018, 06:20:01 UTC
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.

You claim a 20% ROI 90% of the time, and a loss 10% of the time. Let's assume you start each roll with the same amount of bitcoin, hereby denoted b.

Over 10 rolls:

Starting balance, 10b
Wins: 9b x 1.2 = 10.8b
Losses: 1b
Overall: 10.8 - 1 = 9.8b

The script fails (by 2% over time, so worse than blind chance).