I personally check if the bounty program will succeed by checking the project itself .

1. Will there be a good or actual use in the future ? Is their product or project be useful ?
2. Do they have a good community support ? Tho its okay to have a few members in telegram / followers if you are just beggining .
3. Team showing their effort ? e.g. Going into media exposures , crypto/blockchain meetings/summit anything similar to it .
4. Team showing their actual faces ? e.g Making a live video discussion about their project .

Basically thats my criteria on checking if it will succeed , even if it doesnt 100% work everytime . At least you have an idea on how to spot the best bounty / project out there