Fyi, I didnt say shale is dead. Shale lives but oil price is dead. Oil price used to be above 100 and it collapsed. It is now near 65 and that is ONLY due to OPEC (and Russia) cutting ALOT of supply. It was 28 bucks 2 years ago due to oversupply. If asic sales were limited, profit from mining will go up too.
Oh , wait!!!!
So, since your other topic was about the necessity of having an OPEC like cartel this is like you admitting defeat.
OPEC and Russia cut their production to drive up the oil price while shale producers are just raking up profits.
Nice!!!!
Ps, you enjoyed your stop at the gas station when oil was at 130$?
I'm happy with it coming back at 30$.
So, current ASIC manufactures have the capacity to increase it by 0.7T per month if they could sell all their asics. The last thing needed is more asic manufacturers. In the past, asics sold when the breakeven was about 3-4 months. There are only 6 months warranty after all. Now, with the new 2.3k pricing, u are looking at say 9-10 months at current difficulty. With old pricing, it would still be about 7 months at current difficulty. Miners only have 6 months warranty and more importantly, this is not factoring in additional difficulty increases which can be alot higher now than last year. It has been alot more profitable to buy bitcoin rather than mine bitcoin and this trend will probably continue since difficulty can skyrocket so easily. I didnt even factor setup costs, rental costs or new more efficient miners making older miners earn less. At these numbers, unfortunately, there will be alot of new miners who dont break even. The older ones who mined in the better months should be fine.
Since difficulty is jumping, bitcoinity showing 8% it seems like people are still buying and plugin those in.
Mining will be dead when you would make a difference by mining via CPU.
Till that moment bitcoin mining is still alive and kicking.
And from my point of view and my personal opinion how things should be, the sooner miners are sold at 10$ a piece and mining will not be an industry the better.
Right now If I would want just to secure the network I would have to pay an extra 2000$ just for the miner and then hope for half of it back on profits.
I would rather spend 50$ on a miner and take the hit on all the electricity it consumes and mine just as a hobby.
But home miners were killed by large scale farming.
And once this changes then we will have real decentralization. Can't wait for it.