I guess it all depends on the use the network will have. Right now we have low fees again, because there are no spam attacks going, and most users don't really do anything with their coins. The fees problem was greatly caused by exchanges like coinbase and gemini, but they seem to be finally correcting the problem by adoptiing segwit and batching their transactions.
I dont think the current fee decrease is due to exchanges adopting Segwit and batching transactions.
1) Segwit adoption has not increased.
http://segwit.party/charts/2) Num transactions has been going down but transaction value is also going down.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volumeIf more transactions were batches shouldn t transaction value being going up?
I believe its just lower transaction volume.
But isn't transaction batching basically lowering the amount of transactions? so this could be part of that too.
Segwit penetration is still slow, and will remain slow until we have Core 0.16 and all major exchanges are supporting it. We are closer to that. So I would give a year after Coinbase finally accepts segwit to estimate if segwit adoption is being a failure or not.
We'll have to evaluate impact of LN now that it's on the mainnet.
And like Andreas A said... scaling is a never ending battle. And sometimes not scaling is a better move than rushing things and fucking things up.