I agree. I'm down money on AM but I buy more when I can. There will be a leader that emerges from bitcoin miners. When bitcoin breaks the dollar's back what will happen to leveraged multinational corporations? Bitcoin will be the financial and consolidation center of the world. That's my gamble with AM. As long as things are on schedule I vote for friedcat to focus on the business.
Even I get sick of looking too often at prices. The other players and BFL and Avalon made things look easy but they weren't easy. Just look at Coinlab.
You understand that ASICMiner could emerge as the clear leader in Bitcoin mining, and 2BTC/share could STILL be an unfair price, right?
The total number of bitcoins available each year from block rewards is currently 1.36M. That will halve in 3 years and every 4 years after that.
Mature companies rarely have profit margins above 20% and it is unlikely that AM will do better than 20-30% of the total hashrate, even if they emerge as a leader. You are completely discounting the competition otherwise.
So, do the math. Or look here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).
I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.