Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
If Cointerra is selling at $3/GH, do you see the issue with AM producing at $15?
Your choice of cointerra is not a good sample choice it may be profitable in January but that is a long wait in bitcoin and delays are very common.
http://decentralizedhashing.com/bitcoin-mining-equipment-table/
The fact that the stiffest competition doesn't deliver until January is the rationale behind a profit margin as high as 75%.
You must understand - all of my estimates are very conservative to offset the factors I may be missing. Yet, with those conservative estimates, the conclusion is still quite clear.
That is why I have such a high degree of certainty while everyone else appears to be purely speculating. It is extremely rare for a situation like this to appear in a market. I suspect it is a result of the bizarre wealth distribution. Many (most?) of AM's shareholders do not really understand finance.
You must understand - all of my estimates are very conservative to offset the factors I may be missing. Yet, with those conservative estimates, the conclusion is still quite clear.
That is why I have such a high degree of certainty while everyone else appears to be purely speculating. It is extremely rare for a situation like this to appear in a market. I suspect it is a result of the bizarre wealth distribution. Many (most?) of AM's shareholders do not really understand finance.
If we assume a worst case a 30% increase in difficulty by the time the units come to market cointerra could well be seeing negative returns if difficulty rises at the speed we have been seeing recently.
Completely within the realm of possibility. I've discussed "overshoot" before. Many miners will lose money.
But if cointerra is seeing negative returns, what would you suppose that would mean for AM, considering cointerra is bringing a 28nm full custom ASIC to market?
Also, remember that cointerra's cost to produce is probably much lower than $3/GH. That's just their current sale price. There will be price wars.
Still cointerra is ranked better than a BFL Klondike and BFL never delivers anything so my opinion on cointerra is dead bearish.
... what