Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.