Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread
by
runeks
on 16/09/2013, 16:37:22 UTC
Let's look at the USB miners.  if cost is $1.5 /GH, and they have .33 GH, then their cost is $.5. At .1 btc per USB, the revenue is ($12.5-.5= $12). $12 is 96% of $12.5.

Is my math right?  96% profit margin (ignoring shipping) on the USBs at .1 btc?

How many did they sell at 2 btc and 1 btc?

And if the blades are $15 to make, and sell for 4 btc ($500), then they have a profit margin of 97%.

I think my math must be wrong somewhere...

If all of this is true (I am doubting it myself), then even if they match Cointerra's vaporware prices of $3/GH, then they are still 50% profit margin.  The cost for Gen 2 might be less, as well.

No wonder FC is selling hardware instead of mining with it.  Mining isn't profitable enough!
I very much doubt that AM can produce a USB miner for 50 cents.

Here's one attempt to go through the components on the USB Block Erupter and looking up the part codes on Digikey:

Top left: NXP Semiconductor 74HC574 (octal D-type flip-flop), about 0.12 USD
Top middle: Atmel ATTiny2313 (8 bit microcontroller), about 0.72 USD
Top right: Silicon Laboratories CP2102 (USB to UART interface), about 2.30 USD
Bottom right: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor AOZ1021 (3A synchronous buck regulator), about 0.50 USD

So that's $3.64 for the non-ASIC ICs only. Add to that: Block Erupter chip, PCB, heatsink, USB connector. Not sure what these parts cost, but I'd say they add up to at least an additional $1.36, which brings up the total marginal cost to $5, or $15/GH - ie. 10 times the $1.5/GH figure.

That's a 60% profit margin.

Can we be sure that those parts aren't cheaper in China when bought in bulk?
The quoted prices are bulk prices. Price per unit for 10,000 pieces.

I don't see why a Chinese IC manufacturer would sell 10,000 pieces to ASICMiner for much less than what they can get for it in the rest of the world. Unless the IC company in question is run by the state, they want the highest price they can get.

Even if we assume AM can get the parts 10% cheaper (and I don't think they can), that would still be $3.28 for ICs only.

I'm not sure of anything, but again I'm not presenting this as the absolute truth, only what seems to be most likely.