You have good points, but it's rather hard to guess what's going to happen based on patters. Usually there are new patters in place that you never knew of.
For example, I never expected the market to SKY ROCKET so much in January.
People are dumping their altcoins because they want to save their loss that's why Bitcoin and Altcoins will suddenly drops down due to fake news, FUDs and some government regulations that could affect directly and indirectly the market and the investors.
Every time there's a market crash, some people are thinking maybe it's the end of the crypto technology but they are crypto price correction instead.