If you want to ignore ASICMiner's hardware sales
you can't really ignore the hardware sales, as that makes up more than 1/2 of AM's weekly dividend.
AM's share price has typically followed 25-30% APR compared to their last dividend. That relationship has held for months, now.
EDIT: additionally, AM's hash rate has not increased, as they are obviously selling Gen1 hardware instead of mining with it, as it's more profitable.