I believe you're correct. And the truth is, no one can say with 100% certainty when a stock (or crypto) will fall or rise.

If you're not talented with TA or fundamental analysis, then you're better off hodling through a bear and bull market until you reach a price that you personally feel is the right price to sell all your crypto / stock at. And whatever happens, if it goes up or down, don't buy back in and just stay with your profits.

However, you can also learn to TA and FA correctly. Will take lots of patience and time learning. But if you do it correctly, then you'll probably be able to make certain educated guesses when your crypto is about to fall or rise. You can trade conservatively knowing these factors and maybe increase your holdings by 10 or 20 or 30 % a month by finding the obvious peaks and bottoms.

But emotions always come into play and you still may fall prey to greed or FUD or FOMO. And that's when the risk comes in, because then you mis-judge the market and you end up selling when you should have just kept hodling... or Hodling when you should have sold.

But I do think it's possible to actively trade while staying a long-term hodler.