What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies