Here is a simulation of someone betting the max bet on JD with an unlimited bankroll. After 2,000 max bets, how far up or down might they be? What would be the peak profit during that time? This is relevant for determining how lucky Nakowa is. Nakowa is up about 50 max bets at the moment, off of around 2000 max bets wagered.
Matlab code
Matlab code
Code:
n= 50000
cutoff = 50
bets = sign(rand(n,2000)-.505);
outcomes = sum(bets,2);
sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n
sum(outcomes
intBets = cumsum(bets,2);
peak = max(intBets,[],2);
sum(peak>cutoff)/n
sum(peak
%%
figure(1);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(outcomes,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 5000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
text(55,4000,['Chance of exeeding = ' num2str(sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n)])
print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets1')
figure(2);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(peak,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 6000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Peak profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
set(gca,'xlim',[0 max(peak)])
text(55,5000,['Chance of exeeding = ' num2str(sum(peak>cutoff)/n)])
print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets2')
cutoff = 50
bets = sign(rand(n,2000)-.505);
outcomes = sum(bets,2);
sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n
sum(outcomes
intBets = cumsum(bets,2);
peak = max(intBets,[],2);
sum(peak>cutoff)/n
sum(peak
%%
figure(1);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(outcomes,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 5000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
text(55,4000,['Chance of exeeding = ' num2str(sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n)])
print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets1')
figure(2);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(peak,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 6000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Peak profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
set(gca,'xlim',[0 max(peak)])
text(55,5000,['Chance of exeeding = ' num2str(sum(peak>cutoff)/n)])
print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets2')