Of course it is simple. When Dooglus provides me an updated total betting history of nakowa, we can do a shuffle analysis and see for real. Last time I did it when he was up 4000 BTC, it was around 7% chance.
5% chance is 1/20.
Many people here will be familiar with dice.
Roll a 20 sided dice, get a 20 --> 5% chance.
You know, it happens.
He critted just-dice.
nah, Just-Dice rolled a natural 1..