Bitcoin price can be predicted by market analysis.There are two market analysis, they are fundamental and technical analysis.using these analysis we can forecast future price movement, decreasing or increasing. Traders or investors usually use these analysis before deciding to buy bitcoin or sell for profit taking.
I think predicting Bitcoin price in market will be hard even if you are using fundamental and technical analysis like you mentioned. The price of Bitcoin can change anytime depending on the dump or pump by the people. Even 1 person can manipulate the price of Bitcoin if he have tons of Bitcoin to sell, best example of this is Mt.Gox, If you can predict when Mt.Gox will dump tons of Bitcoin then you can predict 100% that Bitcoin will fall.