If you generate 40,000 fair dice rolls, and use this to drive Nakowa's bet sequence, you never get anywhere near earning a profit of 1/2 the amount wagered no matter how many simulations you do. Shift this data all you like, but you'll never make it fit. If the file is correct and I didn't make a mistake, then this is a smoking gun.
Lastly, if you look at my earlier posts in this thread from this time yesterday, you will see that I was recommending people analyze the probability of Nakowa winning a session assuming he bets until he hits his target, or he busts through his large bankroll. I even made plots showing that Nakawa as "cake" was actually more likely to reach 4400 BTC before he bust his (assumed) 10,000 BTC bankroll. So we agree on this point.
On the first paragraph you clearly made an error somewhere - as he's not up by anything like half the amount wagered. Or even 5%.
You still haven't explained why you chose to shift by 2 rather than by 1 or by 3.
I feel that I shouldn't have posted that graph! (But I am still hoping someone will check it!)
1. The sum of the profit column in dooglus's nakowa2.txt file is 17,264 BTC (after removing the small amount of bets not with 49.5% odds) .
2. The total amount wagered according to the file was 985,847 BTC over 42,648 bets (several were small bets).
I agree that the probability of this is not *that* unlikely and can be explained by big balls and good luck.
3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!
4. If you shift it by 1, I calculate -427,822 BTC!
If what I said in point 3 and 4 are correct, then you wouldn't find this fishy? Almost like he was purposely leaving a trial?
Out of curiosity, what would be the probability of winning 420,784 BTC given Nakowa's bet sequence and assuming even a 1,000,000 BTC bankroll? More or less likely than brute forcing a private key?