One question: you have done thorough analysis of dice sites like SatoshiDice, you know math, does this looks like cheating to you? I didn't do such a thorough analysis, but what Nakowa is doing doesn't look like cheating to me, just variance.
At times I was sure SatoshiDice was being cheated. It turns out I just don't know how to tell. I've accused nakowa of cheating before and offended him by doing so. Not directly, but something along the lines of "The strategies you've outlined to me don't work, yet you continue to win every day. You must be cheating, right?"
I currently believe his success is the result of having a big enough bankroll to be able to keep playing until his random walk gets him where he wants to be, coupled with quite unusual luck.
As an aside, what do we think about chat censorship? In particular the incessant begging:
03:21:38 *** percent (153338) [#138925114] bet 10 BTC at 49.5% and won 10 BTC ***
03:21:50 *** percent (153338) [#138925167] bet 20 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:21:51 *** percent (153338) [#138925182] bet 40 BTC at 49.5% and won 40 BTC ***
03:22:02 *** percent (153338) [#138925296] bet 20 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:22:03 *** percent (153338) [#138925319] bet 40 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:22:11 (90159) NAKOWA DON'T BE A PUSSY: GO BIG!!!
03:22:11 (149943) percent stopp
03:22:19 *** percent (153338) [#138925412] bet 30 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:22:19 (124162) shit have to leave, l love his show!
03:22:21 *** percent (153338) [#138925431] bet 60 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:22:22 *** percent (153338) [#138925451] bet 60 BTC at 49.5% and lost ***
03:22:30 (146888) A little donate will bring you luck trust me ! [1Bb9Lx6j]
That last line "donate for luck" is increasingly common. People selling 'karma' or just asking for 'rain'.
I've tried to allow everything in the chat except for blatant spamming or advertising of competitors.
Should I be stricter and disallow begging for donations? Racism? Drug talk? Where do you draw the line? I don't know!