Some simple risk of ruin math introduced here.
Assumptions:
- The whales have enough capital to try and break the bank without going broke.
- JD is considered "ruined" when the bankroll drops from 30,000 BTC to 5,000 BTC. Considering the panic already seen among investors, this is a very conservative estimate.
With a 1% max bet the risk of ruin is surprisingly high: 18.2%
With a 0.5% max bet it drops drastically to: 3.3%
With a 0.25% max bet it is miniscule: 0.11%
Also, Kelly criterion does apply for the best long-term ROI, but with kelly betting you can never go broke. Just eventually the max bet would get into the satoshis and nobody would play.
If your assumptions are not realistic the rest is not either.
What if you take a more realistic assumption and for example say that the whale has double the stack of the house?
What if you consider the bankroll ruined when it's ruined?
How high is the risk for ruin then?