http://ge.tt/5UxhJ8t/v/0?c
Opened the .ods in LibreOffice and saved as .xls. Didn't check to see whether the conversion went okay.
Opened the .ods in LibreOffice and saved as .xls. Didn't check to see whether the conversion went okay.
Thanks for that, that opened straight away.
Looking through that at a high level it shows exactly what I expected.
Bitcoin falls from $230 to $56 and in turn the equity in the company (it's shareholder value) falls from $2.1m to $800k. That is with only $2.5m of total deposits to start with vs almost identical capital. Obviously this scales up if the deposits are larger and there's no way this business will be a success with only $2.5m of deposits.
It's really simple, if you claim to make money from BTC rising value then you (or your customers) must lose if it goes down. The risk profile is symmetric, unless you add assymetry via external option purchases, which are not mentioned (and no-one could write the volumes anyway).
This business is not a bank, it's a bet.
I suggest Neo can attempt to disprove this by showing what the profitability looks like with a 5% decline every month for a year and with substantial deposits. The reason is must be done like this is usually it's hard to make perhaps 1-3% on gross interest margin, so you need deposits that exceed your capital by a large factor to make profits once costs are accounted for. Most banks have leverage ratios (assets/capital) of 20-30 for that reason.
Now, this is a really interesting discussion and its a pity I have to go (but I for sure will follow it tomorrow
).So, If i got it correctly, NEOBEE would survive the worst (up to now) crush but with very big losses. If this gets worse (5% decline every month for a year) it will fail (without depositors loosing their BTCs though). On the other hand if BTC grows NEOBEE will also Grow (with winnings going mainly to the investors, and non EUR depositors). The latter, of course, is non sustainable, BTC will at some point stop growing (which that point will be, nobody has any idea, hence the bet). If though, NEOBEE offers services like secure storage, insurances, etc. and bases their business model on them (charging fees for them) then it would be operating like a proper bank (one that charges you to keep your money safe and does not invest/speculate with them, if you want to invest/speculate then maybe they can offer an additional service for you
). This is what i think they are trying to do btw. Did I got it correctly up to here? N_S, Ex-trader I am really interested in your opinion at the subject. It is also a pity that we don't have Danny here tonight, I am really interested in his opinion as well (I which him luck In Amsterdam though
).Have a nice night Guys/Girls,
SK
p.s. It is my opinion that if this is done correctly, and not as a bet, it can change a lot of things to the better.