I AM very confident with the $1900 one :
1. More than 3 months after monero change algo (just a little different than cryptonight), X3 might update its firmware just like Baikal's miner.
2. For Monero only, with total 4 batch of X3s and if each has 10000 units for total 40000 units means hashrate will rose by 8.8 ghs. With current around 1 ghs and X3s 8.8 ghs for total around 10 ghs, it still mining $20 a day or $600 a month (220khs of cryptonight in Nicehash $200 per day now). Usually Bitmain's Batch only 5-6k or, it will more profitable.
3. Even if it can not mine Monero, there are many coin that can be mine AND there are auto switch pool or rent service like Nicehash so its still profitable.
4. Competitor doesnt have anything big to compete, so network hashrate wont be that big. I would love to add Halong but their miner not be seen anywhere.
5. I always touch break even point at whatever Bitmain throw, even D3 that hated by everybody. All calculated by coin not USD
The point of mining is INVESTMENT for a long time. If you mine with S9 right now and sells the coin right away at 8-9k, then you miss the point and of course you will have big loss. Hold the coins and set sell order at your favorite exchanges with 5 times of its price right now OR atleast wait for next halving.
Im not siding with Bitmain BUT they almost counter every competitors with better hardware. I bet when new SHA256 miner with 2x efficiency, Bitmain will release 4-5 times better OR cheaper.
Best of luck, based upon what I'm hearing there is a high probability most CN coins that exist right now (at least the more well known ones) will fork away and this Asic and invalidate it. If you're looking to invest in a CN underdog you know won't fork away when the time comes, then you're probably going to do well if that coin suddenly gains value after you get your X3.
Good luck and I wish you the best on your positive outlook,but...........Bitmain is offloading the X3 miners they filed a certificate of conformity on 01/23/2018 which means they have been mining the X3 for months and when Monero announces POW change to V7 they all of the sudden want to sell ? Not only this ,but there are 4 manufacturers total announcing Cryptonight miners for sale now. This is worse than D3 scenario people can use rose colored sunglasses but reality is this situation is not looking good for any one who purchased any cryptonight ASIC.
Yup, they've clearly had these miners "testing" for around 60 days now.
Despite all I have said, I still agree with you mate. Cryptocurrency (atleast for me) is the most uncertain business and I love it since I make more money thay my work. Monero difficulty rise from Januari to March is only 500mh to 1 ghs (100% for 2 month), if its only X3 then it just around 2200 units which its to small for Bitmain. I guess they will sells it too since they will have better profit, if they choose to sells the difficulty will last longer. BUT if they make new farm with X3 then it will have exponential growth. With 1000% difficulty in 3-4 months, a $1900 miner still make for 10% from $6000 a month (So $600 a month) until new batch come again it will workout for me. Mine it for 2-3 month and sold it on local market