Here's a reply..... is this the one I missed?
I agree Bitcoin does not perform like any traditional asset and in the long-term it'll either be worth a lot of money or nothing at all, in fact I think it's a pretty binary outcome.
However my issue with this particular 'bank' is that irrespective of the likelihood of it going up through time history has proven that it has that capability of massively falling in value in short periods and it will likely do so again at some points, since it is not 'backed' by anything (metals, governments, taxes, countries or soldiers being the common methods).
I merely wish to discuss what happens to the 'bank' with all it's pegged deposits at that point and the answer is that it quickly becomes insolvent (unless some undeclared potential blackbox trading saves it etc)..........
If I read you correctly, you're simply saying the venture has risk. Is that all? I don't think anyone will say there aren't risks.
The question is: How realistic is the situation you're concerned about and is it reasonable to
expect this to happen? If you're simply saying 'well, it
could happen!' I'm not going to disagree with you - it most certainly could. But so could a slew of other things that would doom it to failure. A meteor could hit the Med and drown Cyprus, but I don't think anyone is wildly concerned about that because it isn't reasonable to expect.
I understand the past has held some significant fluctuations in bitcoin price. There will likely be some in the future. From the sounds of it, Neo would have to be fantastically unlucky to open it's door right on the edge of a 50+% down turn in bitcoin price. Once again, feel free to disagree with that if you please, but I'll argue that the liklihood of such an event occurring is lower than the contrary. If you disagree, give justification. Simply saying it could happen doesn't help - we all know it could.