I merited your earlier post, mostly because I appreciate an anti-sorcerer comment now and then, because sometimes it seems that guys are getting into too much sorcerer reliance.. and sometimes, want to be viewed as sorcerers, too.

Doubling every year is not a bad idea or framework, and if you are starting with $1,000 for 2017, $500 for 2016, and $250 for 2015 - even if you are  largely correct, you seem to be selectively and purposefully low-balling, especially when we have seen $20k for 2017... so you either seem to be purposefully skewing down your expectations or you are engaged in a state of unrealism.   

We are also NOT going to get linear BTC performance.. so even an average of 2x every years seems to just be a kind of stab in the dark that is not really based on anything except for a kind of dream about how the world should be rather than how it is, especially with a considerable likelihood that bitcoin is in a exponential curve which will not likely be held back by 2x (or linear) expectations.