Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(:
https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.
Could this have implications on Monero?
The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.
What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.
In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.
I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down
Monero is flying under the radar, and riding on the goodwill towards bitcoin. The regulators are years behind and don't even understand bitcoin yet. By the time the full impact of bitcoin on the economy is known, regulatory regimes are set up, etc. it will be too late to stop Monero. We'll have decentralized exchanges and atomic swaps.