you will have higher returns than the average and make up your loss.
This is the part I don't get. It doesn't matter when you invest, whether the profit is up or down, or what kind of bets are being made, your chance of winning/losing remain the same (minus the 1% edge).
You are right, that part is not true.
It's not because you will have higher returns than the average investor that you will make up your loss.