More importantly however, whatever you think the reason for this is, please look at nakowa's yesterday winning charts and tell me that there is no "exploitable" pattern to it:
That's all easy with hindsight. The hard part is being sure of the exploitable pattern of Nakowa's next run.
Similarly, I've noticed BTC trading in the 130-145 range over the last weeks. What's stopping you from selling at say 142 and buying back at 135 repeatedly? Would have been a winning strategy over the last weeks/months. What could possibly go wrong...
I'm addressing that point in my post: I said, at around bet 6000, some people decided it's a "pattern" and traded accordingly.
You also noted that I said, several times in fact, that I'm aware that in the long run, investment "trading" should be -EV, right?
But that wasn't my argument anyway: in the short run, it can be +EV. So a loss like the one we suffer now isn't distributed evenly over investors. So the losing investors will be unhappy. So the site will lose investors, which is bad for everyone.
That, in a nutshell, is my argument why invest-trading hurts j-d. And the complementary argument is: there's no good reason to *want* invest-trading: j-d already has a gambling mechanism. Investments should be just that: investments.