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Topic
Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
dooglus
on 01/10/2013, 05:35:42 UTC
The site so far has had 145,551,114 bets and cumulative luck for all players is at 100.49%.  This seems like a large enough sample size that it should be converging on 100%.  With a 1% edge assuming the most common bet is a 2x 49.5% bet, it would seem a player luck of 100.49% essentially means a historical house edge of 0.51%.  Is that logic correct?  If so, is this a probable result with a 1% house edge?

The discrepency is the result of the 0.0001% bet being played 1 million times and won twice instead of once as expected.

Calculate what 'luck' would be if every other bet went exactly as expected.  I think you get something very close to actual luck.

Code:
>>> (200*1 + 100*145.5) / 146.5
100.68259385665529

'luck' ignores stake, so a couple of lucky 990000x 1 satoshi bets increase player luck while costing very little.