Also, just as an observation, it is interesting at 0.25% we immediately became profitable and at 0.5% investors again losing badly. Also the luck of the players at 100.49% after 150 million bets is odd since that implies an historical effective edge of 0.51%.
I'm beginning to agree with you about the max bet. Did you read my post about it?
Regarding the luck, you may want to read Dooglus' explanation for it one more time. The discrepancy comes from 2 instead of one wins at 0.00001%. That makes sense to me at least.
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Lastly, this has been a gut-wrenching experience as an investor. I was prepared for losses, but not for the amounts sustained for 3 reasons:
1. The speed and improbability of the losses. We have huge losses that occur in very short order
2. Magificaition of losses inflicted upon passive investors at those who successfully "day trade" their investment. These investors sustain bigger losses than the site
3. Much harder to get back to even since investor take losses and then get diluted by new investor (or day trading ones) after the drop. In the last example, Nakowa brought the site down to 36k BTC and then invested over 12k himself diluting all other investors by over 25%. He causes losses (due to whatever improbable mechanism) on his wagers and then he profits from the sites over the smaller wagers which tend to behave +EV. It seems Nakowa has been able to overcome the +EV for his large bets for whatever reason (variance, luck, a good system, a flaw in RNG or cheating)
At the very least, the risks of points 2 & 3 should be added to the FAQ in the name of full disclosure. I must admit my morale is shot to hell at this point looking at 30%+ losses and greatly diluted bankroll percentage due to all the reinvestment (by nakowa and daytraders).
1. The speed and improbability of the losses. We have huge losses that occur in very short order
2. Magificaition of losses inflicted upon passive investors at those who successfully "day trade" their investment. These investors sustain bigger losses than the site
3. Much harder to get back to even since investor take losses and then get diluted by new investor (or day trading ones) after the drop. In the last example, Nakowa brought the site down to 36k BTC and then invested over 12k himself diluting all other investors by over 25%. He causes losses (due to whatever improbable mechanism) on his wagers and then he profits from the sites over the smaller wagers which tend to behave +EV. It seems Nakowa has been able to overcome the +EV for his large bets for whatever reason (variance, luck, a good system, a flaw in RNG or cheating)
At the very least, the risks of points 2 & 3 should be added to the FAQ in the name of full disclosure. I must admit my morale is shot to hell at this point looking at 30%+ losses and greatly diluted bankroll percentage due to all the reinvestment (by nakowa and daytraders).
I'm in the same position as you so I know the feeling. I don't agree with the improbability of the losses. I ran some simulations and full Kelly can give very volatile results. Go back a few pages and take a look.
Day trading is a non issue I think, but the dilution by new investors is very painful and I wish there was a solution. I don't have one though.
Long term I think we need to manage the risk of catastrophic outliers much more carefully. Because these events are not so extremely unlikely that have (at least by me) been assumed.
I will show another graph I made, showing the probabilities of a lucky player taking a big chunk of the bankroll starting with very little money. (0.5%, 1%, 2%, 5% and 10% of the bankroll)
This is the probability that it happens to any given player (that plays very aggressively). Since there are millions of bets placed, the results get magnified and are bound to happen from time to time. I haven't quantified the cumulative risk so far, but I will try to do that.
