I think your reply was very polite. I went into this investment realizing I could lose coins - even all of them due to fraud. I did not anticipate the amount and speed through "normal" gambling activity since noone could predict a Nakowa and the results he has had. The max profit did not really enter into the equation when first considering this investment since I figured noone would be spamming 300+ BTC bets. Obviously, in hindsight, this was an incorrect assumption. My dilemma, like the majority of investors (esp the passive ones), is I am already significantly down in my investment but I do believe in the math. To quit when down due to variance is the exact opposite thing to do. I am prepared to lose the entire investment without BKing myself - even if Doog ran off with the coins or was robbed, or etc.
It just that we are so far from what would be considered likely results that it is hard to reconcile. And when you are 35% down and getting constantly diluted, it is frustrating indeed. The house luck suggests a 0.51% historical edge which is perplexing to me after 150M bets. Anyway, I know I am merely vocalizing the concerns of many other investors and concerns Doog himself has brought up.
It just that we are so far from what would be considered likely results that it is hard to reconcile. And when you are 35% down and getting constantly diluted, it is frustrating indeed. The house luck suggests a 0.51% historical edge which is perplexing to me after 150M bets. Anyway, I know I am merely vocalizing the concerns of many other investors and concerns Doog himself has brought up.
I'm glad you took it well, I was worried when I pressed send.
What I'd say is I feel your pain in trying to make up for your losses, but keep in mind that that's a classic gambling problem. In fact:
http://jeu-aidereference.qc.ca/www/signs_problem_gambling_en.asp
#2 Chasing losses.
The reality that 35% you lost is gone. And, honestly unlikely to return with fractional kelly and the increasing value of bitcoin. So you need to ask yourself what is the best option for you as of right now. Well, as of right now your confidence is shaken, you can't convince yourself that the site is not in fact hacked (that 0.51% historical edge/luck thing you've referenced a few times now is incorrect: look up dooglus' explanation of why that is), you're afraid of the varience. So drop your investment a bit until you're confident again that it is a good investment. Again, not trying to spread FUD, for everyone, just saying in your case to drop it until you're comfortable again. I did the same thing. I had 15 invested, Nakowa had an enormous win, so I divested, investigated, was convinced the site wasn't hacked and re-invested.
Anyway, hope that helps. I'll leave it alone now
