How lucky one needs to be to beat expectation with 40k?
Lets bet 400 on >50.5 say 10000 times. We only need to win 5100 times, right?
No, I don't think that is right, for two reasons:
1) if you win 5100 times, you win (5100*400)-(4900*400) = 80k. Not 40k. So you're off by a factor of two there
2) if expectation is to lose 25k, to beat it by 40k you 'only' have to win 15k. That means winning 5018 times (5018*400 - 4982*400 = 14400)
So you 'only' need to win 5018 and lose 4982 to be around 40k better than expectation.