Post
Topic
Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
nicolaennio
on 02/10/2013, 09:46:36 UTC
I think it helped when I put the max profit down to 0.25% and got a massive "no, put it back, we want the variance" from the majority of investors.  It made me realise that the investors know what they're doing, and that I don't have to baby them.  I still sometimes feel like the best thing to do would be to shut the site down, but then I remember that the investors want the chance to recoup their losses.

Thanks for this answer. It gave me some insight why someone like you (highly intelligent and rational) could make such an irrational decision. Try not to care about the ups and downs of the bankroll and if you can't help yourself from caring, don't watch. It's like managing a stock portfolio and selling a stock because it is down .... Wink

Variance can get to the best of us Smiley

I think the decision of putting the variance to 0.25% was completely rational and mathematically justifiable. May I note that if we were all such "rational investors" knowing "what we do", this forum would contain no messages? But now there are a lot of pages also from the "rational" people, which feel bad of the losses.

If you run some simulations you may see that with Kelly 1% you can easily go to down to  20% of the initial bankroll. Easily. If that happens (it can still happen...), dooglus would be in real danger because no one would believe in the fairy tale of math. Then what does he do? Will the rational investors convince the irrational ones with "mathematics"? No.

Now someone explains me what will happen if nakowa starts playing again with max bet, put the bankroll down to -10K (it can easily happen and it is mathematically provable), and then he invests again.