Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: [CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time
by
DannyHamilton
on 02/10/2013, 12:58:20 UTC
So you think it will take another 127 years to mine??

Give or take a few years, yes.


What makes you think it will take another 127 years to mine the rest of the bitcoins?

A reasonably good understanding of the bitcoin protocol. And a decent ability to handle basic mathematics.

  • The subsidy that releases new bitcoins into the bitcoin network started at 5,000,000,000 satoshi.
  • It is reduced by half (rounding down to the nearest full satoshi) every 210,000 blocks until the subsidy is 0.
  • If you do the math, you'll find that the last satoshi will be mined in block number 6,930,000
  • So far there have been 261,273 block (as of the writing of this post).
  • That leaves 6,668,727 blocks until the last satoshi is mined.
  • The protocol adjusts the mining difficulty every 2016 blocks to attempt to keep the rate of block creation as close to 2016 blocks per fortnight as possible.
  • 6,668,727 divided by 2016 is 3,308 fortnights.
  • There are 26 fortnights per year.
  • 3,308 divided by 26 is 127 years.

Which part of that did you think I got wrong?

Let's revisit this statement in another year shall we?

If you like, sure.  I don't expect the subsidy rules of the protocol to change significantly in a year, do you?