I wish there was a real options market on this. I would put most of my money into long term puts right now.
There is.
http://www.glbse.com is probably the best, bitoption.org is just starting out
You can buy long term futures and soon options for BTC, and sites like Mt. Gox and Camp. BX are adding support for it if you read their websites.
The fact is, you can't analyze the bitcoin market. After you find out the options exist, you wont have the guts to do anything.
The price is very volatile, the market is too small at this point and influenced by bots and occassional large buy orders/offloading of hoarders