The number 1 lesson is the best of all and will teach you everything. Do not believe any groups that are telling you this will happen or that will happen. It will always be just speculation.
No one can predict to what will happen. The price could double anytime or could fall until you cannot take it anymore.
Then all of it will follow, including what you should do to at least have an idea to where the price will go.
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Everyone is always speculating but unfortunately we cannot know anything. Most times, a lot of newbies always end up falling for those craps since they cannot make decisions on their own, but the fact is that some of these guys will just go solo and only come back when the market is looking good and leaving you to your own fate. The best is to learn how to do some of these things by yourself still one of the aspect that I believe every trader must learn as most important lesson for trading is, never get greedy.
I definitely agree to all your lessons learned in fact it is very relatable. In this kind of business, we need to experience it personally because I believe that experience is still the best teacher. You may be doong the same thing but you are into different circumstances that requires different kinds of decision making. But whatever it is the best strategy is having enough knowledge of what you are doing and patience to wait for the perfect timing and open mindedness to change your strategy if its not working.