How about BitUSD? your logic is that The only logical way to bet is to assume everyone else will eventually bet with consensus toward USD. But why? Can BitUSD exchange with USD at a fixed rate? or who make BitUSD tie to USD will be rewarded? No. Actually there is no link between BitUSD and USD except the name, the only way to win is to forsee the price trend of BitUSD correctly, no matter how the BitUSD/USD rate will change. Isnt it absurd to suppose that the market will make one thing tie to USD only because you name it *USD?
However things like market making can make this tie happen, and then can lead BitUSD to act like USD in payment and deposits, then Bitshare system will be more meaningful then Bitcoin
Sure, the promise of delivery is one aspect of futures contracts, but if you look closely, 99% of future contracts are never delivered and in fact the total outstanding futures contracts often exceed the available supply of a given commodity. The future market would be just as valuable if all trades were settled for USD rather than delivery because, in theory, the USD received would allow the commodity to be bought for immediately delivery.
Try a thought experiment, assuming you had 1000 BitShares today, at what ratio would you short BitUSD and at what ratio would you buy BitUSD.... you now have your bid-ask spread.
The legal requirement of SETTLEMENT on a specific date...
Whether by Delivery or Cash Settlement is what enforces futures markets.
It's not clear to anyone whether you have a proper mechanism in place.
As for bid-ask spreads... there is no such thing as "you now have".
Bid-ask spreads are a function:
(a) market liquidity
(b) market volatility
(c) market manipulation
You are gonna start with very liitle (a)... and a large amount of (b) and (c).
Including rules like your 5% short closure Tax that will create massive (c).
In general, overly complex systems are designed...
To make it easy for Insiders/Experts to fleece the ordinary Lambs...
So complexity in and of itself... is a reason for skepticism.