Hi Kano-san, or anyone from the team, i wanted to promote the pool via a personal blog post, but before i can do that, i need to fully grasp the idea on how we run. Question, how do we calculate the "expected" blocks. I assume it is based on the pool hash rate, but is there such a formula to it? Please help to clarify on how we exactly get the total number of expected blocks as from what i can see, when pool hash increases, our expected block should increase since we need more blocks to reach the 100% expected target. Or in other words, the more miners here, we are expected to hit more blocks in order to balance the share per hash of expected 100%.
Thank you in advance!
Its just hash rate math. The higher our hashrate, the more likely we are to find a block. Of course, finding blocks is purely random, so block finds are expressed as a percentage after-the-fact. E.g. If we expect to find a block in 2 days, and one pops up in 1 day, that is a 50% block. If it pops up in 2 days its a 100% block. If it pops up in 4 days its a 200% block. Normal random distribution rules hold. e.g. Its about 1 in 7.4 that we will have 200% blocks, and 1 in 10,721 we would have a 928% block (those stats happen to have come up in a recent conversation on the IRC channel).
Over time, like 500 blocks, things tend to average out towards 100%. Its just like rolling dice. Hard to say over a dozen rolls how many 1s, 2s, etc. you will get, but over 600 rolls its pretty likely you will have about 100 of each. Actually fairly unlikely you would have EXACTLY 100 of each though.
One thing to advise your readers: Kano has a longer ramp up time than most. Its fair, you get it all back if you ever leave, but its 5nD approach (see "Payouts" under the help section on the pool website) has that effect.