Hi
Is there any ASIC out there worh as an Investment?

I was thinking about buying a KNC miner. When I assume the delivery in mind-end Nov this device gets obsolete in End of feb when Black Arrow Prospero X-3 arrives. So I expect a yield of 2000USD in this period. Manybe you get 500-1000 USD afterwards. So when I buy I would probably get a loss of 2000USD+
This scenario repeats and repeats; just look at the amount of avelon miner which will never get they're return.
WHY? Cuz the Investment in ASIC is currently stupid! Just do the math:

A 12 inch 28nm Waver costs around 2-3 k USD in production. However is sold from the fab for 10k (high quantitys).

So a typical Waver would be:
2.4 GH/s / mm2 at 28nm a 12inch Waver has 70000 mm^2 = 170TH

yield is not 100%-> 150TH

so the price would be 6 cents/GH!!!!!

Of course everithing has to be tested and packed and this produces significant costs. The R&D+initial production cost must be covered as well as PCB and PSU, MCU etc....
So lets say production costs are 30 cent/GH. Best offer ATM 1.5 USD/GH. There is huge potential in cost reduction, and this will probably also happen from generation to generation of asic's making the old ones obsolete before they returned the investment. This will happen over and over again until prices reached very close to production prices (when will this be??). Until then its better to invest in directly in bitcoin than in mining.

PS: I'm not blaming any ASIC company for ripping customers off. They probably have higher production prices, this just shows how low it can and probably will go in pricing.
So to me an investment in any offered ASIC seems completely nonsense. How do you see this?