$7,700 will be the ceiling for a rally as bullish momentum is limited and the overall downtrend remains intact, making it profitable for daily traders.
From what I've seen in other graphs, $7700 is harder to reach than $6600 (3700 BTC vs 2700 BTC). But this means nothing. I think that Bitcoin price rise is now a matter of "when", not "if". And when it'll happen, many sell positions may get moved upwards, making the current numbers deceiving. (The same goes for $6600: at that level many new buyers can come in). For now I'd not follow the numbers too strictly.
I strongly support your stance. In my opinion, we will fare better if we look at recent volatility levels. Today's price doesn't look very stable to me. I know that past behavior doesn't mean anything but I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin rises a couple thousand dollars overnight like it had happened less than 2 months ago. Apart from that, I take TA, and especially TA in this market, with a spoonful of salt. If you need a crutch for your trading decisions, then definitely use it. Otherwise stay away from it, as simple as it gets.