I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.
that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.
so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.
these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can
actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.
Absolutely right.
So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.