i think it will down to 6400 usd for 3 months and after august or september raise again step by step to 15k usd.
Your analysis is quite amazing but i think it will take at least next 6 months in the dip and then in the last quarter of 2018 , the price will bounce back huge, it can be 15k$ as you said or else it will be at least 20~25k$.
The end of the year is another begin of Bitcoin.