Given the lagging trends and the blow-off top, I'm not expecting a bull market for quite some time. Given how long everything takes now, it's prudent to expect many months if not more than a year of consolidation. Longer, if this is 2014.

I definitely don't think enough time has passed that we've seen despair. But for now, I'm still waiting for my post-bubble bull trap. The question there is will we make new lows after the bull trap? In 2012 and 2013, we did not.

A trading friend of mine (who generally leans permabear) is partial to this bullish wedge: