Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Puppet
on 24/10/2013, 21:20:11 UTC
1000 PH sounds quite reasonable actually. The break-even point for BTC at $100 USD for the highest efficiency ASICs today (the 28nm tech) is ~200 PH/s (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279.0)

if bitcoins are $500 by then, that takes us to a break-even of 1000 PH... and this doesn't take into account more efficient chips or higher bitcoin prices (or over-invested miners or people powered on wind farms, etc.)

Nor does it account for the production cost, supply chain and HUGE opportunity cost of selling these miners far above marginal cost.

1000PH is the equivalent of more than 2 million HF babyjets. Even if the price would get down to just $500, thats $1 billion dollar. Who's going to cough that up?
Moreover,  if they start producing today, to get there by February thats ~17000 units per day, 7 days a week.  Ciara is a big plant, a really big plant, but last I looked, IIRC they boasted about 2500 unit per day total production capacity across all their lines.

Now I have a reputation for being pessimistic about miners prospects, but even i dont believe this for a second.  100PH would be pretty amazing already.